Climate change made storm that devastated Libya far more likely and intense, scientists say

and swept bridges, cars and people out to sea. The death toll has varied, with government officials and aid agencies giving tallies ranging from about 4,000 to 11,000 dead.

“Through these events, we are already seeing how climate change and human factors can combine to create compounding and cascading impact,” said Maja Vahlberg from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre in the Netherlands and one of 13 researchers who collaborated on the analysis. Researchers acknowledged that there was high uncertainty in their estimates, including the possibility that warming played no role, because the climate models could not accurately capture the very intense heavy rainfall events.

Florida State University climate scientist Michael Diamond, who wasn't involved in the study, said he doesn't disagree that a warmer atmosphere probably contributed. But he said the analysis differs from most traditional climate studies that start with the baseline assumption that global warming is not changing extreme precipitation, then determine if that is right or wrong.

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