Climate change made storm that devastated Libya far more likely and intense, scientists say

and swept bridges, cars and people out to sea. The death toll has varied, with government officials and aid agencies giving tallies ranging from about 4,000 to 11,000 dead.The analysis was conducted by the World Weather Attribution group that aims to quickly evaluate the role of climate change in the aftermath of extreme weather events.

Researchers looked at one-day maximum annual rainfall in a region over Libya, calculating that this month’s storm was a once in 300- to 600-year event. They also looked at four-day maximum rainfall in the summer season over a region that includes Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey, finding the recent deluge would be expected to occur once every five to 10 years.

But they gave equal weight to their observations and the climate models, and said they were confident in their findings because it’s well-established that warming causes the atmosphere to retain more water vapor — about 7% more for every 1 degree Celsius of warming — and nothing else occurred to counteract that effect.

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