Increases in oil prices in response to the conflict, triggered by the bloody attack by Hamas in Israel on October 7, have so far been relatively mild.
The prospect of Iran, a supporter of Hamas and sworn enemy of Israel, being drawn into the conflict presents one of the main risks for the energy market. Even if Tehran stays out of the conflict,"the West might decide to tighten sanctions on Iran or simply to enforce existing sanctions more effectively," said Campanella.
Attacks on its infrastructure in September 2019, claimed by Yemeni Houthi rebels supported by Tehran, caused Saudi to temporarily halve production, leading the price of Brent to jump by almost 20 percent in one day. But they are less exposed this time around given the rise of the US as a producer and an OPEC that claims to be less political.The price of TTF, the European benchmark for natural gas, was up by a third in mid-October compared to before the October 7 attack.