The European benchmark for natural gas was up by a third in mid-October compared to before the October 7 attack. Photo: Mark Felix / AFP/FileThe escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas could further strain global oil and gas supplies, already disrupted by Russia's invasion of
The OPEC member has seen its production and exports damaged by years of international sanctions, but has nevertheless increased its production over the last year and is suspected of smuggling barrels onto the market. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz when shipping crude oil outside of the Gulf, explained Campanella.The worst-case scenario, unlikely but not impossible according to analysts, would be stronger sanctions leading Iran to retaliate by attacking oil installations in Saudi Arabia, one of the world's main producers and exporters.
The shocks led to crude prices jumping within a few months, bringing developed economies to their knees. "While European gas inventories are almost full, they are not sufficiently high to get through the winter in case all imports stop," said Giovanni Staunovo, of UBS.