‘Pivotal moment in energy history’ as fossil fuels to peak

For the first time, worldwide use of all fossil fuels is expected to plateau or peak in all scenarios in the International Energy Agency’s closely watched world energy outlook, representing what it describes as a “pivotal moment” in the history of global energy.

The findings were seized upon by environmental groups, with Carbon Tracker saying “the writing is on the wall” for investors and there was no longer any doubt about long-term prospects for fossil fuels, including new gas. Investment in clean energy is set to surge by more than 50 per cent to top $US2 trillion a year by 2030 under existing policies, representing a huge opportunity for growth and jobs, the IEA said.It also represents a major arena for international economic competition, as nations introduce policies to spur a massive build-out of clean energy, such as the US’s Inflation Reduction Act and Japan’s Green Transformation, or GX, program.

The IEA says that to reach net zero emissions by 2050 investment in clean energy would need to top $US4 trillion by 2030, double the current forecast. But it says a pathway to net zero emissions “remains narrow but still achievable”.In its updated net zero emissions scenario, the IEA has cut the share of natural gas in the energy mix, citing energy security concerns around gas because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Still, in the net zero scenario, fossil fuels drop to below one-fifth of total energy supply in 2050, when they are mostly used with carbon capture and for non-energy uses. Coal demand slumps by 90 per cent, oil by about 80 per cent and gas by more than 70 per cent. “Gas supply is required to fall in excess of 20 per cent this decade and there is no room in the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 scenario for gargantuan new projects such as Scarborough-Pluto and Barossa,” said Market Forces executive director Julien Vincent.

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