Breakingviews - Breakingviews: Twitter brinkmanship favors Musk exit for a price

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Elon Musk has lost a lot of money since he first took a stake in Twitter. If Tesla’s owner wants out, Twitter may grant him the privilege of an exit, for a fair amount of chump change, writes GinaChon

Elon Musk’s Twitter profile is seen on a smartphone placed on printed Twitter logos in this picture illustration taken April 28, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationWASHINGTON, May 13 - Elon Musk has lost a lot of money since he first took a stake in Twitter. Some $370 billion has disappeared from electric-car maker Tesla’s roughly $800 billion market capitalization since April Fool’s Day, the last trading day before Musk revealed his stake in Twitter.

The Tesla boss tweeted on Friday that his $44 billion buyout was “temporarily” on hold as he’s waiting for details that confirm Twitter’s calculations on spam and fake accounts. Meanwhile on Thursday Twitter Chief Executive Parag Agrawal let go of two senior employees. Even if the moves were already planned, they don’t reflect a lame-duck CEO. Instead it suggests that Twitter is trying to show it doesn’t need Musk to stay the course.These are often the first overtures to a broken deal.

and there’s plenty of scope for that here. The merger contract has a $1 billion break fee for both parties, but also a so-called “specific performance” clause that muddies the pain that Musk could incur.That’s where the stakes – and an out-of-court negotiation – come into play. A busted deal would be more painful for Twitter: Short-selling firm Hindenburg Research said on Monday that Twitter’s stock would fall by 50% if Musk walked away. That suggests it’s going to push as hard as it can.

 

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