A worker checks the valve of an oil pipe at the Lukoil company-owned Imilorskoye oil field outside the Siberian city of Kogalym, Russia. Picture: REUTERS/ SERGEI KARPUKHIN
The agency's central scenario — which incorporates existing energy policies and announced targets — is for demand for oil to rise by about one-million barrels per day on average every year to 2025, from 97-million bpd in 2018. This year, the IEA renamed its main scenario “Stated Policies”, instead of “New Policies”, to clarify that it reflects current policies. It is one of three scenarios used to show how energy demand could evolve over the next two decades.
The IEA's central scenario also does not see energy-related carbon dioxide emissions peaking by 2040 due to economic growth and population increases.An expected rise of just over 100-million tonnes a year between 2018 and 2040, although lower than the average rate of increase since 2010 of 350-million tonnes a year, would not be enough of a reduction to curb global temperature rises.
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