El Nino and climate change to blame for wet and warm winter

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released the 2023-2024 Winter outlook on Thursday. The outlook shows warmer temperatures in the North fueled by the El Nino climate pattern and possible drought relief for the South.

World could face record temperatures in 2023 as El Nino returnsThe upcoming United States winter looks likely to be a bit low on snow and extreme cold outbreaks, with federal forecasters predicting the North to get warmer than normal and the South wetter and stormier.

Most of the country is predicted to be warmer than normal with that warmth stretching north from Tennessee, Missouri, Nebraska, and Nevada, along with nearly all of California. The rest of the nation is forecast to be near normal or have equal chances for warm, cold, or normal.“The greatest odds for warmer than average conditions are in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and northern New England,” Gottschalk said.

All this is because of El Nino, which is a natural periodic warming of parts of the Pacific that changes weather patterns worldwide and generally heats up global temperatures, Gottschalk and other NOAA scientists said. El Nino has its strongest effects, especially in the United States, during the winter. That’s when it sends the jet stream, which moves storm fronts, on an unusual path that is dominated by warmer and wetter Pacific air plunging south.

NOAA scientists said climate change is an added factor to their forecast, especially with winter being a season where the world sees some of the most warming above old normals from the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas. Winter in the Lower 48Meteorologists outside NOAA see the winter playing out somewhat similarly.

 

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