Federal forecasters predict warm, wet US winter but less snow because of El Nino, climate change

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The upcoming United States winter looks likely to be a bit low on snow and extreme cold outbreaks, with federal forecasters predicting the North to get warmer than normal and the South wetter and stormier.

heavily moderates and changes the storm tracks of what America is likely to face from December to February, with an added warming boost fromThe forecast warmth will likely turn some storms that would have dumped snow into rain in the nation’s northern tier, but there’s also “some hope for snow lovers,” with one or two possible whopping Nor’easters for the East Coast, said Jon Gottschalk, operations branch chief of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

A similarly large southern swath of the country is predicted to be wetter. The forecast of added moisture stretches from Massachusetts down the East Coast along most of the South below Tennessee, and extending west through Texas, Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Nevada and most of California, but excluding good chunks of New Mexico and Arizona.

That means more rain in the South and extra storminess in the late winter, Gottschalk said. El Nino often means “unusual severe weather across the state of Florida because of a strong subtropical jet stream,” he said. Judah Cohen, a winter storm expert for Atmospheric Environmental Research, a commercial firm outside of Boston, has become prominent because of his successful forecasts based on fall Siberian snow cover and study of the infamous polar vortex. The Siberian snow cover, El Nino and other factors “indicate an overall mild winter,” he told The Associated Press.

 

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