Investor relations is much easier when you’re making money for shareholders – just ask AGL Energy.
The more strategic investors are also thinking about AGL’s big retail business, and whether the company still thinks its future could be in selling telecommunications or other services alongside electricity and gas. Analysts expected AGL’s EBITDA to be up about 10 per cent in FY23 and 35 per cent in FY24, according to Capital IQ consensus forecasts. Last year’s pressures – outages and higher coal and gas prices – have eased.
“Last year in winter, they had a lot of units with outages, so we will be looking to see how the maintenance programs for evolving the fleet reliability are going,” says Martin Currie portfolio manager Andrew Chambers.Funding the transitionTwenty-billion dollars has emerged as the benchmark for the big energy market players when talking about building renewables portfolios.
He’s tipping AGL to use its balance sheet to develop and own batteries at its old generation sites, or on AGL land, and renewables to be off-balance sheet. The new management team, which also includes chief customer officer Jo Egan and chief operating officer Markus Brokhof, will be on display. Brokhof is the only one to have been in his job for more than a year, and they’re still reasonably new to investors.Early signs are good, according to L1 Capital joint chief investment officer Raphael Lamm, whose fund is invested in AGL. “We’re very impressed with how the new management team has kicked off,” he says.
UBS’ Allen reckons AGL is unlikely to have a new distribution policy at the investor day – that’s something more likely to be announced at an annual general meeting. On his numbers, AGL could continue to pay out 75 per cent of its underlying profit as dividends, and still meet its capital expenditure requirements.AdvertisementAll the attention is on AGL’s wholesale business – that’s where the company makes most of its money in a good year.
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