capacity expansion model, NREL evaluated supply-side scenarios representing a range of possible pathways to a net-zero power grid by 2035 — from the most to the least optimistic availability and costs of technologies.
“For the study, ReEDS helped us explore how different factors — like siting constraints or evolving technology cost reductions — might influence the ability to accelerate renewable and clean energy technology deployment,” said Brian Sergi, NREL analyst and co-author of the study.In all modeled scenarios, new clean energy technologies are deployed at an unprecedented scale and rate to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035.
Seasonal storage becomes important when clean electricity makes up about 80%–95% of generation and there is a multiday-to-seasonal mismatch of variable renewable supply and demand. Seasonal storage is represented in the study as clean hydrogen-fueled combustion turbines, but it could also include a variety of emerging technologies.
“The U.S. can get to 80%–90% clean electricity with technologies that are available today, although it requires a massive acceleration in deployment rates,” Sergi said. “To get from there to 100%, there are many potentially important technologies that have not yet been deployed at scale, so there is uncertainty about the final mix of technologies that can fully decarbonize the power system.
However, in all scenarios there is substantial reduction in fossil fuels used to produce electricity. As a result of the improved air quality, up to 130,000 premature deaths are avoided in the coming decades, which could save $390 billion to $400 billion — enough to exceed the cost to decarbonize the electric grid.