Analysis: Surging energy prices create perfect storm for UK bonds

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British government bonds are on course for their biggest monthly fall since 1994, as surging energy prices create a perfect storm of higher inflation, tighter monetary policy and the prospect of greater government borrowing.

Yields for interest-rate sensitive two-year gilts - as well as for 10-year bonds which factor in longer-term concerns about inflation and debt issuance - have jumped by more this month than any month since May 1994 when there was a slump in prices known as the 'Great Bond Massacre'.

A higher-than-expected July inflation reading of 10.1% - the first time consumer price inflation has hit double digits in 40 years - dealt a further blow on Aug. 17. Neither Truss nor Sunak have specified what support they think is needed. Media reports on Sunday said Truss - the front-runner in polls of Conservative Party members - was considering cutting the rate of value-added tax to 5% from 20%, at a cost of around 38 billion pounds a year.

Unlike during the COVID-19 pandemic, when hundreds of billions of pounds of new debt was lapped up by markets without leading to higher borrowing costs, current high inflation meant bonds were no longer viewed as a safe haven, he added.British government bond yields are also being pushed higher by what markets see as a more hawkish BoE stance at August's meeting. The BoE said it was still prepared to raise rates forcefully if needed, despite forecasting a lengthy recession.

 

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Analysis: Surging energy prices create perfect storm for UK bondsBritish government bonds are on course for their biggest monthly fall since 1994, as surging energy prices create a perfect storm of higher inflation, tighter monetary policy and the prospect of greater government borrowing. Gambling with people lively hoods… sadge
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