Column: Australia’s renewable energy ambitions dwarfed by coal, LNG juggernaut

One of the refrains of the environmental lobby is that Australia is extremely well-placed to become a renewable energy superpower, and that this will replace the loss of revenue from coal and natural gas exports.The problem is that only one of the two above assertions is accurate, namely that Australia is in pole position when it comes to many of the minerals that will be critical to the energy transition.

But the idea that Australia can compensate ending the export of coal and liquefied natural gas by boosting output of energy transitions metals is somewhat fanciful. A rise of more than 700% in export revenues from lithium certainly looks impressive, and the Australian government also expects the country’s share of global output to rise slightly by 2024 to around 46% from the current 41%.

The combined export value of both grades of coal is A$72 billion in 2023-24, and it’s worth noting that this is a conservative forecast, especially in the light of the current high price of thermal coal caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupting global energy markets. This is substantially below the current spot price of around $44.71 per mmBtu, and while it’s unlikely the current near-record high prices will persist for an extended period, it is possible that they will exceed the forecast, especially if Europe continues to seek to replace piped gas from Russia.

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