Blake Shaffer is an associate professor of economics and public policy at the University of Calgary. Andrew Leach is a professor at the University of Alberta’s department of economics and faculty of law.
Just how hard it will be for Alberta to comply with the CER depends on which model you believe and how bullish you are on the pace of technological development. While some predict blackouts and spiking prices, others predict minimal cost impacts and a smooth transition to a clean energy future. The only consistent thing across the model runs is uncertainty.
Third, the regulations force existing and new industrial combined heat and power plants to meet stringent emissions restrictions. In response, facilities will likely reduce or eliminate their exports of electricity to the grid, further compromising reliable supply – and without reducing emissions. The regulations should allow existing facilities to continue their exports.