Analysis: a year on from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, volatility continues to be key theme shaping the energy landscape
We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.Manage Preferences Three things have really determined the price of natural gas over the last year: the war, the global economy and the weather, says Deane. We feared a cold winter, but the weather has been incredibly mild, which significantly reduced the demand for natural gas around Europe, taking pressure off the supply.
One the one hand, if the weather stays mild, prices will stay down. But if there's a quick economic rebound from the Chinese economy, we'd expect prices to go up very quickly again and very sharply, says Deane.
But Paltrinieri sees the cap as a political achievement rather than a technical one and argues it will be difficult to apply even if prices were to reach such high levels again, for example due to further interruption of the flow of gas from Russia."Moreover, [the cap] can be suddenly stopped if the supply is at risk, if the trading volume is reduced at the TTF, or if risks overcomes the benefits," he adds.