Is this the future of transport for South Africans? Facebook user Djo BaNkuna says his factory in Limpopo is producing donkey carts with sound systems, seat belts and lights. Picture: DJO BANKUNA/FACEBOOK.
All is not lost, however. WesBank CEO Ghana Msibi reckons we’ll be able to afford something better in a couple of years. After a further period of intensified consumer belt-tightening, including more interest rate increases, he thinks the economy will “normalise” in 2024 and that new vehicles will become more affordable.
It’s too soon to guess with any certainty what 2023 will bring but Naamsa, in its latest quarterly briefing published last week, thinks combined sales of new cars and commercial vehicles will hit 464,493 this year, then 505,000 in 2023. It’s a sign of our uncertain times that a senior market analyst for a major manufacturer thinks 490,000 is a more realistic 2023 target.
Msibi, who describes himself as a “quintessential optimist”, believes the worst will soon be over. He says: “We expect the supply shortage of certain automotive components such as semiconductors to improve in the medium term and for the current logistical turmoil in the world to ease, together with lower shipping costs. These developments will help world economies, including South Africa, by cutting operating costs.
This hasn’t stopped George Mienie, CEO of online vehicle retailer AutoTrader, from repeating his plea for duty cuts on imported EVs. He wants South Africa to copy Australia, which has just approved legislation exempting EVs from import tariffs and fringe benefits tax. There is also talk of converting the entire Australian government fleet to EVs.
Nevertheless, there’s little doubt that South Africa must do something to shake up the local EV market. Naamsa reports that in the first nine months of this year, 3,092 EVs were sold in South Africa. That’s a big leap from the 898 sold in the whole of 2021, and 324 in 2020, but utterly insignificant in the global EV market.
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