The typically conservative diversified oil companies are both eyeing Anadarko's prime acreage in the Permian basin, and in the case of Chevron, it sees deepwater and liquified natural gas assets it also likes. Plus Chevron can more easily digest a big deal, something that may make its stock a more attractive piece of the offer, analysts said.
"My guess is Chevron comes back with an improved bid but not necessarily one that is significantly higher or even higher at all than Oxy. Then the ball is in Oxy's court to tell us how much they want this business. For Oxy, we're probably approaching the place where it a bid gets much higher than that, the market starts to worry about their leverage," he said.
"To me, it seems like we're one deal away from a bunch of deals," he said. "I think it goes back to combinations that make industrial sense." "I think Anadarko is probably angling for Chevron to raise its bid. It's a $7 billion gap between Chevron's bid and Anadarko's bid," said Stewart Glickman, energy analyst at CFRA. "They would still be technically better off from a pure numbers stand point. They might be better off with Chevron...I think Chevron is a better fit than Anadarko, Occidental."
Occidental also needs shareholder approval, but Chevron does not. "We believe the market has more faith in Chevron's stated synergies, which appear to be under-promise/over-deliver type numbers, than OXY's, which appear to be ambitious in order to make their unsolicited bid look viable," Sankey wrote in a note.
You mean a burnt out cinder particle drifting in the cosmic broth?