Death of electric vehicle sales is overstated, says BMO economist

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Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow

BofA Securities quantitative strategist Nigel Tupper’s most recent research report had enough fascinating statistics that I wrote an entire newsletter top about it ,

“Breadth has been narrow in the last 3 years, with only four stocks contributing half of the return of the MSCI ACWI Index. This is lower than the 20-year average, in which only 54 stocks have accounted for half of global equity market returns. When market breadth is narrow, a view on the stocks driving index returns arguably becomes more important than country, sector, or style allocation … We note some stocks have been dominant contributors consistently for an extended period.

“Through 2024H1, U.S. alternative fuel new vehicle sales were up 20.6% y/y . Here’s the full scorecard for year -to -date sales: Electric +8.6% y/y . Battery electric +2.5% y/y . Plug-in hybrid electric +34.0% y/y. Hybrid electric +35.6% y/y. The relatively poor showing for BEVs is a red herring —Tesla sales are down an estimated 9.6% y/y while sales ex -Tesla are up more than 33% y/y. So, the headline figure is more a statement on Tesla than it is of the broader EV market.

 

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