On May 19, a Ukrainian drone slammed into the 70,000-barrel-a-day Slavyansk oil refinery in southern Russia’s Krasnodar region, sending a fireball into the sky, according to videos circulating on social media. It was the third time in two months that Ukrainian forces hit the relatively small plant located several hundred kilometers from the front, dodging Russian air defense systems. The latest strike forced Slavyansk to temporarily shut down until the damage could be repaired.
In targeting refineries, Ukraine is seeking to curtail Russian oil export revenue, the single biggest source of money for the federal budget, and to disrupt the domestic fuel market, experts say. Some experts say the impact will be minor because Russia’s oil industry has flexibility built into its structure. Russia on average refines more than 5 million barrels of oil a day, far outstripping domestic demand, allowing it to cut exports in the face of a fuel price spike.