The relationship between climate and malaria transmission is complex and has been the subject of intense study for some three decades.
We are part of an interdisciplinary team that has just published a new set of estimates for future malaria suitability across the African continent in the journal Science. Our work incorporates the dynamics of water flows and stores that can influence breeding locations. The results give a more accurate picture than before of where the malaria transmission season might get longer or shorter as the climate changes.
Follow the water Building on our earlier pilot study, published in 2020, in this new study we used seven global hydrological models. Each was run using four climate models. We looked at different possible futures by including a low-, medium- and high-emissions scenario for greenhouse gases.
For instance, the Nile corridor in Egypt is omitted in previous thermal and rainfall models. But when hydrology is included, as in our study, the area is predicted to be highly suitable for malaria transmission. Changing suitability Overall, we found that by 2100, a general decrease in malaria suitability is projected across the majority of Africa. Future climates are increasingly either too warm or too dry for year-round malaria transmission.