Global Fossil-Fuel Demand Can Peak Before 2030—Here’s How

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It’s possible for fossil-fuel demand to peak before the end of the decade, but emissions would still remain high enough to increase the global average temperature by more than two degrees Celsius, according to the  World Energy...

CLIMATEWIRE | Global demand for coal, oil and gas may peak before 2030, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.

Clean energy will play a "significantly greater role" in 2030 than today, the IEA found, with almost 10 times as many electric cars on the road and renewables making up nearly half the global electricity mix. Meanwhile, the rate of new fossil fuel infrastructure has slowed, with worldwide additions of coal and natural-gas-fired power plants decreasing by half from earlier peaks, according to the report.

Under the scenario where current policies remain the same, renewables are still set to contribute 80 percent of all new power capacity in 2030, the report said. Solar photovoltaic systems will make up more than half of that new renewable energy supply, with room for growth as manufacturing capabilities also increase worldwide, the IEA said.

In states where adoption is already high — like California, Oregon and Washington — EVs would likely need to hit 80 percent of new car registrations for the U.S. to achieve the 50 percent threshold. That's because at least 20 other states will adopt EVs far slower, reaching at most 20 percent of new car registrations by 2030, McDonald said in an interview.

 

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