Energy agency predicts peaks in global oil, coal and gas demand by 2030

For more than a century, the world’s appetite for fossil fuels has been expanding relentlessly, as humans have continued burning larger amounts of coal, oil and natural gas almost every year to power homes, cars and factories.

If that all came to pass, oil and gas demand would most likely plateau at slightly above today’s levels for the next three decades, expanding in developing countries and shrinking in advanced economies. Demand for coal, the dirtiest of fossil fuels, would start declining, though it might fluctuate year to year if, say, coal plants needed to run more often during heat waves or droughts.

Predictions about global energy trends are notoriously difficult, and the International Energy Agency has been wrong before. In 2016, the agency suggested that China’s demand for coal had peaked, but coal use later soared to new levels. On the other hand, the agency has previously underestimated the rapid growth of cleaner technologies like solar power.This year’s report says China will play an outsize role in determining the world’s energy future.

A plateau in global oil and gas demand could cause energy prices to become more volatile in the short term, said Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

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