Climate change will force up to 113-million people to relocate within Africa by 2050 — new report

documents the current realities of climate-forced migration and displacement in Africa. The report paints possible scenarios for future population movements resulting from increasing climate impacts. It also revises the discourse of migration and climate change. It uses the term “climate mobility” to capture the movement motivated by the adverse effects of sudden or slow-onset climate impacts.

The number of people moving to seek protection and better livelihoods will increase from 1.5% of Africa’s population today to as many as 5% by 2050. This amounts to about 113-million people. Up to 2.5-million people could leave Africa’s coastal areas due to sea level rise and other stressors. In the Horn of Africa, climate impacts could force up to 9% of the population — as many as 49-million people — to move in the decades ahead. This makes the case for adequate planning to build local adaptive capacity, especially in smaller cities and towns. Adapting could enable more people to stay in their home communities.

The movement of people across borders in response to climate change is expected to be relatively small. Cross-border climate mobility is forecast to reach a maximum of 1.2-million people by 2050 under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. This will be a small fraction of the continent’s overall population and a small contribution to the total likely cross-border migration of 11-million to 12-million million people by 2050.

Importantly, for most on the continent, climate mobility is likely to be a response of last resort. Most Africans are attached to their land and homes and don’t aspire to leave their communities. Half of the men and 40% of the women surveyed expressed hope and optimism for the future, despite experiencing severe climate disruptions. For many people relocation is too costly. As a result, some of the most vulnerable people remain in place, risking forced evacuation or becoming stranded.

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Climate change will force up to 113-million people to relocate within Africa by 2050 — new reportIncreasing climate risks mean that millions of Africans could be uprooted — or trapped where they are due to climate change.
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