Opinion: COP27: Which countries will push to end fossil fuel production? And which won't?

Fossil fuels have provided a crucial source of energy over the past 200 years. But they also account for 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, enable massive environmental destruction and support many brutal regimes.

COP26 opened the doors for a phaseout The Glasgow Climate Pact, that emerged out of COP26 last year, called upon parties to “accelerate efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, recognizing the need for support towards a just transition.” Who may join the phaseout coalition? Using the Fossil Fuel Cuts Database, we tested economic, political and climate vulnerability factors against initiatives already taken between 2006 and 2019 by 124 governments with fossil fuel reserves. We found that dependence on fossil fuel rents reduces the likelihood of constraint measures, but not the size of fossil fuel reserves or production. Richer countries are also more likely to use constraints.

The third category comprises countries with little prospect of fossil fuel production compared to major stakes in a green transition, such as Chile, a leading copper and lithium producer.

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