Projecting electric car sales is getting trickier

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Democrats' climate deal greatly expands purchase subsidies for electric vehicles. But it also ties them to strict sourcing requirements. Those complexities make it trickier for analysts to predict EV sales.

Data: Rystad Energy; Note: Includes battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

The firm finds that the expanded credits and recent EV announcements from automakers "significantly increase" the chances that U.S. sales follow the "high case" in the chart above.Susan Zou, another Rystad analyst, notes the bill signals an effort to cut battery supply chain reliance on China, but adds that automakers will face challenges to comply with the minerals, processing and component rules.

 

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boo hoo

Surprised Manchin didn’t demand coal fueled cars.

Raw material supply constraints as well as the limitations of the charging infrastructure will impact EV sales more than demand incentives $7,500 on a $55,000 to $80,000 vehicle doesn't have as much impact as one thinks, and there won't be many '$30,000 models' for ages

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