Climate projections have been suggesting warmer and drier winters for the south-western Cape. So why did we get such heavy rain and flooding last week? There are several reasons.
When these extreme events occur and impact on people's livelihoods, infrastructure and the economy as a whole, we need to look at the likelihood of any permanent changes to the weather and climate in the region. Will there be a"new normal" and if so what will it look like?that rainfall variability should be seen in the context of climate change.
Theoretically, climate change can affect all this in two main ways. The natural variation may change if the westerly winds, are pushed further south and force the cold frontal systems to pass too far south to bring significant rain over the land. This is unlikely to occur all at once, without a large-scale event which shifts the global climate, such as the collapse of the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets. More likely, we will see this process taking several decades.
However, it is likely that global warming is leading to a global climate change, mostly evidenced by increased temperatures , more heatwaves, more intense rainfall and a change in the frequency of atmosphere/ocean phenomena like El Niño. Extreme events, such as intense rainfall and even droughts are more likely to occur in a warmer future.