In June, the International Energy Agency IEA forecast peak oil demand growth in less than six years. Later that same month, the Energy Institute revealed demand is still growing and where it declines, the declines are minuscule. While the two reports paint two rather different pictures, they also offer a glimpse into the actual future of oil demand and supply, especially viewed in the context of trends like a slowdown in U.S. oil output and China’s recent boost in local oil and gas exploration.
Imports of crude oil have trended lower than expected since the start of the year and while it could be argued that expectations may have been unrealistic, the decline is affecting the outlook on demand. Then there are the forecasts, including from Chinese energy majors, that demand growth in the world’s top importer is about to peak. Sinopec, the state energy giant and the world’s biggest refiner, reported in May that it expected demand growth in the country to peak in three years.