Hansen Vs. Mann — Is Global Warming Linear Or Exponential?

A simulation of the planet from the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model, one of the large-scale models incorporated in the Earth System Grid Federation led by DOE’s Oak Ridge, Argonne and Lawrence Livermore national laboratories. Credit: LLNL, U.S. Dept. of Energy

Michael Mann is also a highly regarded climate scientist, and is the director of the Center for Science, Sustainability & the Media at the University of Pennsylvania. Mann has contributed to the scientific understanding of historic climate change based on the temperature record of the past thousand years. He and his colleagues introduced the now famous “hockey stick” graph that showed a steep rise in average global temperatures beginning with the advent of the Industrial Revolution.

“Climate change is characterized by delayed response and amplifying feedbacks. Delayed response makes human-made climate forcing a threat to today’s public and future generations because of the practical difficulty of reversing the forcing once consequences become apparent. Feedbacks determine climate sensitivity to any applied forcing.

That idea has been widely criticized by other members of the scientific community, who point out that the process will be very expensive — on the order of tens of trillions of dollars. In addition, there could be unknown and unknowable negative effects when and if the program is terminated. Nevertheless, Hansen and a small group of climate scientists warn the world is running out of time and options to avoid catastrophic temperature growth..

Bärbel Hönisch, a paleoclimatologist at Columbia University, said she had “some reservations” about the certainties expressed in Hansen’s research about the state of the Earth’s climate millions of years ago, which helps predict the consequences of warming today. “I would be a little more reserved but they may well be correct. It’s a nicely written paper. It raises a lot of questions that will trigger a lot of research that will bring our understanding forward.

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