September 29, 2023 at 6:29 p.m.
It was a number welcomed by the Biden administration, whose management of the economy through the pandemic and subsequent outbreak of inflation, will likely be central to next year's presidential campaign. With a possible U.S. government shutdown beginning this weekend, the release on Friday could be among the last major data points the Fed has in hand for its Oct. 31 - Nov. 1 meeting - should the stalemate in the U.S. Congress over a spending bill last that long.The Fed, which is self-funded, would continue operating even if the rest of the government does not.
"Core inflation is likely to comfortably undershoot the Fed's 3.7% projection," perhaps ending the year as low as 3.3%, he wrote in an analysis after the latest PCE data were released. "Unless you have a sustained reacceleration penciled in for the core PCE it will be tough to see the Fed hit their estimate."That outcome, if affirmed in coming months, would likely lead the Fed to hold rates steady again at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting, as it did last week.