to be about 24 per cent of gross domestic product for the recently completed 2021-22 financial year, around the Morrison government’s pledged 23.9 per cent limit.companies such as BHP, Rio Tinto and Woodside Energy more profits than every other non-financial industry combinedThe estimated federal tax bounty would eclipse the most recent high of 23.7 per cent of GDP in 2007-08 and be the largest tax take since the early years of the mining boom in 2005-06 under the Howard government.
“But the underlying deficit, which emerges as unemployment rises and commodity prices fall to more normal levels, is more like 2 per cent of GDP, or $40 billion.”Despite the temporary windfalls, over the medium term the budget is projected to remain in an entrenched structural deficit because of spending pressures from aged care, disability support and defence.
“This is why we’ve kind of got these budget deficits despite full employment and the record terms of trade.” The former government’s tax threshold was previously projected not to be reached until late this decade.The official result might not be known until the October 25 budget is delivered.He has warned that the budget cannot rely on temporary revenue windfalls from high export prices for iron ore, coal and gas.Dr Chalmers has pointed to continuing spending pressures from aged care, the National Disability Insurance Scheme, health, defence and interest repayments as the cost of borrowing rises.