Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries shows the growing threat AI drones pose to energy markets

Ukraine-launched drones have hit 18 Russian oil refineries with a combined capacity of 3.9 million barrels per day this year, according to JPMorgan.

Ukraine-launched drones have hit 18 Russian oil refineries this year with a combined capacity of 3.9 million barrels per day, according to report published by JPMorgan earlier this month. Some 670,000 bpd of Russian refining capacity is currently offline due to the strikes, according to the bank. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made clear Tuesday that the Biden administration is worried about the strikes in a rare airing of public disagreement with U.S. allies in Kyiv."Certainly, those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation," Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee."Quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.

The deployment of AI drones also has broader implications for global energy markets, according to Bob Brackett, a senior research analyst at Bernstein. The drones are cheap to produce compared to the millions of dollars in damage they can cause and could empower nonstate actors to challenge superior fighting forces, Brackett told clients in Friday note.

But Russia is also major exporter of a gasoline feedstock called naphtha. If naphta markets were to tighten because of the attacks it could have an impact on gas prices and balances, said McNally, who served as a senior energy official in the George W. Bush administration.

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