Railbelt electric utilities are facing a major energy crunch. Renewables may be the answer.

In 2022, Cook Inlet’s largest natural gas producer, Hilcorp, announced it could not guarantee a gas supply to the Railbelt beyond the next few years.

That’s a problem for communities on the Railbelt, the stretch of Alaska communities from Homer up to Fairbanks. Two-thirds of the region’s electricity is currently generated from Cook Inlet natural gas.One option is to ship in liquefied natural gas on tankers from Canada. But importing natural gas is expensive and prices are unpredictable.

Denholm said that would require building major new wind and solar farms, along with battery storage. In this scenario, for example, wind power would go from providing just 2% of Railbelt electricity today to 51% within 15 years.“One challenge is that there’s relatively little historic development of wind and solar ,” Denholm said. “So there would be a challenge of getting that infrastructure in place to avoid all of that natural gas.

Wight, the UAF energy historian, said this transformation is possible but it will require major changes in how utilities do business. “Utilities are not used to running the grid this way,” Wight said. “It’s going to take a cultural change, it’s going to take innovation in order to get there.”

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