A combination of rising geopolitical risk and supply disruptions has pushed oil prices higher, with Brent looking increasingly likely to break the $90 mark. Energy stocks have started to outperform the wider stock market as Brent is nearing 89 per barrel this week, with energy leading the S&P 500’s eleven market sectors in March thanks to a 10% rise.
The oil markets are anticipating the OPEC monitoring meeting on April 3, looking for potential clues on the directionality of pricing, with JPMorgan already predicting Brent to be in the $90s by May on Russia’s production cuts. The ongoing tightness in refined products has seen refiners outperforming pure upstream-focused companies by some 5 percentage points as the Red Sea shipping disruptions and refinery drone strikes in Russia kept supply restricted. According to Reuters, OPEC production declined to 2
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