Historical data show that to date, a reduction in energy availability has mostly affected the US, European countries, Japan, and other advanced economies. I expect this situation to continue as energy limits become more of a problem. Advanced economies will start looking and acting more like today’s less-advanced economies. The world economy will face a bumpy path in a generally downward direction. In this post, I give an overview of our current predicament.
says that when carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere, it stays around for 300 to 1000 years. also reports that the increase in atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa was the highest ever in 2023. Figure 7. Figure showing annual increases in carbon dioxide emissions at Mauna Loa observatory, prepared by . The black lines represent 10-year averages. The increases shown on Figure 7 are relative to a large base. As percentages, they range from about 0.2% per year in the earliest periods to about 0.6% per year in recent periods. In summary, whatever the Advanced Economies are doing to restrict emissions still leaves the world’s emissions from fossil fuels, as well as atmospheric emissions, rising fairly rapidly.