JAVIER BLAS: Europe’s winter energy crisis might only just be beginning

I’m a glass half-empty kind of person. If anything could go wrong, I assume it will go wrong. And that’s the lens through which I look at the European energy crisis. Perhaps my biases cloud me, but I think we should all be sceptical of the emerging narrative that says the worst is over.

But my biggest issue with the “worst is over” mantra is that the cold season has only just started. The meteorological winter began on December 1. The astronomical winter doesn’t start until December 21. Ahead lie the 100-plus coldest days of the year. And we simply don’t know whether the season will be normal, mild or bitingly cold.

There’s still a significant risk that consumers will be asked to reduce demand. Localised blackouts remain a strong possibility, particularly for France, Finland, Ireland and Sweden. In its winter outlook, released last week, the association of the European companies that manage the grid said: “The situation this winter is critical but manageable.” That doesn’t sound like the worst is over.

From now on, the dreaded scenario is what energy professionals in Germany call a Dunkelflaute — literally meaning the dark doldrums, a period with little solar and wind electricity and high demand because of low temperatures. If a Dunkelfluate episode hits Europe — and some traders and meteorologists believe there’s a high chance of one this week or next — the region will be in trouble. The grid operators would likely to ask consumers to cut their demand to avoid blackouts.

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