Tech Progress, Supportive Policies, and Infrastructure Investments Drive Down Costs and Spur Technology Adoption
“With continued improvements in vehicles and fuels, ZEVs are rapidly becoming commercially viable, potentially reaching total cost of driving parity or better compared to diesel vehicles by 2035 in all market segments,” said NREL’s Catherine Ledna, a decision support analyst who led the study. , the laboratory’s flagship sector-wide transportation energy systems model. The research team used TEMPO to estimate how the total cost of driving of MHDVs could evolve under a range of scenarios comprising technology cost and progress, fuel costs, and policies, while also considering new vehicle purchases, stock turnover, vehicle activity, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the NREL study, the time horizon in which ZEVs become competitive with diesel vehicles on a total cost of driving basis varies according to vehicle class and market segment. The combination of capital costs, operational costs, and vehicle miles traveled generally determines when a ZEV technology achieves parity. For all vehicle applications, at least one ZEV technology achieves parity with diesel before 2035.
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