hen I first started attending CERAWeek by S&P Global, perhaps the world’s most influential energy conference, many attendees treated the phrase “energy transition” almost as a dirty word or the butt of a joke. This year, the fact that we’re in the midst of an energy transition is treated as a given. It’s hard to find a panel or listen to a hallway conversation without hearing the phrase.
The pulse among many oil-and-gas executives here is different. In their telling, the energy transition will include growing production of oil and natural gas. Renewable technologies like solar power will continue to expand but not enough to stop fossil fuels from expanding, too. “We’ll bring the molecule solution set, and others are bringing the electron solution set,” ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told the conference in the opening hours . “I’m not suggesting one is better than the other.
But what are we transitioning to? In a climate-friendly world, a smooth transition might track the IEA’s so-called net zero report, which in 2021 charted a glide path to eliminate emissions by mid-century. That report suggests that by 2050 nearly 70% of electricity comes from wind and solar power, with intermediate steps along the way.
Some in the industry see the evolving circumstances as an opportunity to pull back. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told the conference that the transition is “visibly failing.” “We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas, and instead invest in them adequately, reflecting realistic demand assumptions,” he said.
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