Exxon Mobil sees the world failing to reduce emissions fast enough to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial norms by 2050 due to soaring economic growth, particularly in developing countries.
Oil use will “decline significantly” in personal transportation, but remain “essential” for shipping, long-haul trucking and aviation, demand for which is expected to rise, Exxon said.While that represents a drop of more than 25 per cent from the 34 billion tonne peak expected this decade, it’s a long way from what’s required to meet the goals of the 2016 Paris Agreement.
Global gross domestic product per capita, a measure of purchasing power, is expected to rise 85 per cent by 2050, increasing demand for manufacturing, commercial transportation and other industrial activities, especially in Asia. Higher fuel efficiency will cause energy use to decline in the developed world.
If every new car sold in 2035 was electric, oil consumption in 2050 would be 85 million barrels per day — 17 per cent less than today — and about the same as 2010 levels.
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