Analysts raise EU carbon price forecasts after reform agreement

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Analysts have increased their average price forecasts for EU carbon permits for the next three years after EU countries this week approved plans to revamp the bloc’s carbon market, but warned prices could remain volatile along with swings in European energy costs.

EU Allowances are expected to average 86.17 euros a tonne in 2023 and 96.19 euros in 2024, a Reuters survey of seven analysts showed. That is up 5.9% and 2.2% respectively from forecasts made in January.The European Union's Emissions Trading System forces manufacturers, power companies and airlines to pay for each tonne of carbon dioxide they emit as part of Europe's efforts to meet its climate targets.

"We maintain our view that the EUA price will continue to rise in the coming years as market participants prepare for tighter balances," she said. European gas and electricity prices have retreated from record highs seen last year following Russia's invasion of Ukraine as Europe built up large gas reserves and milder than usual weather dented demand, but gas prices still remain high historically.

 

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