NEW YORK: Many people of a certain age can recall the first time they held a smartphone. The devices were weird and expensive and novel enough to draw a crowd at parties. Then, less than a decade later, it became unusual not to own one.
For the past six months, the US joined Europe and China - collectively the three largest car markets - in moving beyond the 5% tipping point. If the US follows the trend established by 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new car sales could be electric by the end of 2025. That would be a year or two ahead of most major forecasts.Most successful new technologies - electricity, televisions, mobile phones, the internet, even LED lightbulbs - follow an S-shaped adoption curve.
The next major car markets approaching the tipping point this year include Canada, Australia, and Spain.Some countries, primarily in Europe, were quicker to adopt plug-in hybrids, which have smaller batteries backed by a gasoline-powered engine. A consistent tipping point for this broader category of EVs wasn’t achieved until 10% of new vehicles had a plug.