Recent world events have swept the most expert market forecasts aside like chessmen. For years, conventional wisdom has been that EV sales would take off only once battery costs reached the “magic number” of $100 per kilowatt-hour — a price that would allow EVs to reach price parity with dinosaur-burners.
Of course, as much as battery costs have ballooned, gas prices have grown more, thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and that’s surely the main reason that EV sales growth is still strong. Will the party keep rolling? The answer depends on several factors. Margins in the battery industry are slim, so rising costs will be passed on to automakers, and thence to consumers. According to, may cost as much as $1,500 more than they did last year — 30% of the car’s sticker price. Higher EV prices are in the pipeline, and they could put a damper on car buyer’s enthusiasm for going electric.
As for the future of petroleum prices, that depends on so many unpredictable economic and geopolitical developments, including the behavior of various powerful but irrational individuals, that we shall not even hazard a guess, educated or otherwise.
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