New technologies have a tendency to blindside. When color TVs were introduced in the 1950s, for example, they seemed like a flop. The devices were expensive, programming was scarce, and after a decade on the market few homes had one. Then suddenly prices dropped, a ratings war ensued, and in just a few years most U.S. households were watching"The Jetsons" in its futuristic palette.
“Once enough sales occur, you kind of have a virtuous cycle,” said Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF. “More EVs popping up means more people seeing them as mainstream, automakers more willing to invest in the market, and the charging infrastructure expanding on a good trajectory.” While this market-share approach to EV tipping points shows how fast the transition to electric cars can take hold, it doesn’t preclude year-to-year slowdowns or setbacks due to supply-chain disruptions, economic downturns, bankruptcies and politics. Analysts at BloombergNEF expect fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales to increase about 22% this year globally, decelerating from the last several years, though not dramatically changing the long-term outlook for EV adoption.
Not a single country thus far has taken more than three years to go from 5% to 15% EVs — which means the U.S. and South Korea will either break from the trend in 2024 or will require a sudden acceleration in sales to catch up.
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Fuente: cleantechnica - 🏆 565. / 51 Leer más »