Oil demand growth in China is about to weaken in the coming years as electric vehicle uptake and a switch from oil to LNG for trucks displaces a solid chunk of demand, the research arm of CNPC has forecast. Growth in EV sales and LNG-powered trucks would shave between 10% and 12% off the country’s demand for gasoline and diesel just this year, Lu Ruquan, president of CNPC’s Economics and Technology Research Institute, said as quoted by Bloomberg.
This still leaves the bulk of demand in the fuels segment. Over the longer term, demand is seen falling to 220 million tons annually, which should happen by 2060. In a more recent update, from this month, the CNPC institute forecasted that oil product demand could peak as soon as 2025. The projection is based on expectations that the energy transition will continue gathering speed, eliminating oil product demand growth.