A month or so ago, I explored some ways we could manage a likely onslaught of plug-in hybrid vehicles . Why do we need to think about this? Because revised EPA emissions regulations recently revealed by the Biden administration basically allow a PHEV to count for roughly 3/4 of an EV.
But, there are a lot assumptions baked into that ideal scenario. Some people don’t have access to a plug where they park at night, so they’d basically be driving a heavy hybrid. Other people might simply refuse to plug it in for various reasons, like misunderstanding the cost of electricity compared to gasoline or having an employer who will only reimburse you for gas.
In short, every PHEV sold that would have been an EV sale means there’s that much less need for charging stations. This means, in turn, that EV charging companies will invest less in building more stations and more stalls. Given that EV infrastructure is already pretty inadequate toward meeting mainstream buyers’ expectations for driving an EV, this could very well lead to reduced demand for EVs. I’ll call this the “reverse catch 22”.
The next question is how much uncertainty investors are going to experience when they see PHEV sales rise early on at the temporary expense of EV sales. Some will very likely see this as a sign that the time to invest in EV charging hasn’t arrived yet. But, others will do things the Tesla way and see the necessity for making a long-term investment instead of worrying about getting returns this year or next year.