Record low Antarctic sea ice 'extremely unlikely' without climate change

In 2023, Antarctic sea ice reached historically low levels, with over 2 million square kilometres less ice than usual during winter -- equivalent to about ten times the size of the UK. This drastic reduction followed decades of steady growth in sea ice up to 2015, making the sudden decline even more surprising.

According to the models, the record-breaking minimum sea ice extent would be a one-in-a-2000-year event without climate change. This tells us that the event was very extreme -- anything less than one-in-100 is considered exceptionally unlikely.""Strong climate change -- i.e. the temperature changes we're already seeing, and those expected if emissions continue to rise rapidly -- in the models makes it four times more likely that we see such a big decline in sea ice extent.

There are many complex and interacting factors that influence Antarctic sea ice, making it hard to get a clear understanding of why 2023 was such a record-breaking year. Recent studies have highlighted the important role of ocean processes and heat stored below the surface, and warm sea surface temperatures during the first half of 2023 may also have contributed. Strong variations in north-to-south winds and storm systems also played a role.

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Record low Antarctic sea ice 'extremely unlikely' without climate change, says scientistsScientists at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) have found that the record-low levels of sea ice around Antarctica in 2023 were extremely unlikely to happen without the influence of climate change. This low was a one-in-a-2000-year event without climate change and four times more likely under its effects.
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