Estimating the Growth of Electric Vehicles & Tesla Sales, an Exploration of S-Curves

reader and data analyst David Gines, we get a high-quality, professional, useful exploration of exponential growth of EV sales — Tesla’s sales, Norway’s EV sales, and broader regional and global EV sales.How fast will the world transition to electric vehicles ? No one knows for sure, but we all have opinions. Many are now saying that EV growth has stalled. Others acknowledge growth, but imagine that it’s linear .

Will they achieve this? We’ll explore that more below, but for now, suffice it to say that they’d need exponential growth to last from now until then, whereas in practice, exponential growth never lasts forever, as we’ll see in the next example: Norway.. But it didn’t get there through linear growth, nor through endless exponential growth.

As before, we need to assume a final value for Tesla’s market share. And here, unlike Norway’s EV market share, we don’t know what Tesla’s ultimate share of the market will be. Rather than try and answer that question, we can plot separate s-curves for different values. The next plot tries final values of 5, 10, 15, and 20% market share . For comparison, note that Toyota currently has the largest market share at around 11%.

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