LONDON, March 20 - In the usual way of things, platinum and palladium should be turning higher after a slide from recent peaks drove supply deficits, job cuts and looming mine closures in top producer South Africa. That they're not shows how hard the electric car revolution has hit demand forecasts.
Analysts see a long tail for PGMs use in traditional internal combustion engines, and a drop in supply as mining becomes less economic has kept prices relatively well supported. But with fellow precious metal gold at all-time highs this year, that's a disappointing performance. According to analysts at Macquarie, demand for both platinum and palladium from the auto sector will start falling beyond 2025.
But platinum , down 9% so far in 2024 after sliding 8% in 2023, may fare better. It is the only major metal in the group that is expected to rise by 2028 from last year's level, helped by demand in non-auto industries such as jewellery. Analysts are more certain that the supply side will support platinum in the future through declining output from mines.
For South Africa's platinum miners, that is cold comfort. According to consultancy Metals Focus, South African PGM miners currently get just 35% of their revenue from platinum.
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