While any one summer may be cooler or warmer than average, that average continues to get hotter as the climate warms. Over the past few decades, smaller features that could nudge a summer hotter or cooler than average are getting overwhelmed by the planetary warming signal.
People are also reading… Finding a cool summer requires going back to 1992 — the first full summer after the massive eruption of Mt. Pinatubo — the second largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century. Sending phenomenal amounts of ash, dust, and particulates into the stratosphere for more than a year, it managed to temporarily cool the planet by about one degree Fahrenheit during the following year.
Looking back several decades for historical analogies, the transition has often led to hotter and drier summers in the eastern half of the country. But if that transition does not happen as quickly in the next month or two, a hot and dry summer may not come to pass. He also sees correlations with a summer that is especially drier than normal in the Ohio Valley — and in another location that is prone to drought.
The combination of the warm water and transition to La Niña also suggest an especially active hurricane season. It is too early to indicate a hurricane will hit a particular spot, but those areas that are typically at risk — Florida and the Gulf Coast — should be especially aware of the heightened threat this season.
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