You write that the Pentagon began planning for what disaster experts call “complex emergencies” after the East Coast was walloped by Hurricane Sandy, and that it was the triple-assault of Hurricanes Irma, Maria, and Harvey — combined with massive wildfires in the west — that “made the nightmare palpable” for officials. What is a complex emergency, and what do they mean to the Pentagon?
In Puerto Rico, after Hurricane Maria, the systems of government basically crashed in many places. There was no electricity or communications available and the military came in and had to provideof those services. There is a fear that in the future these kinds of emergencies, complex emergencies, will increase in severity and in number — and could occur simultaneously — requiring a vast commitment of military forces at a time when maybe those forces are needed elsewhere.
Places like the countries of northern Africa are already suffering terribly and we see that currently with localized conflicts. But as climate change advances, even bigger and more wealthy and powerful countries will feel the effects. I think water is the area where this will play itself out — water shortages — and where two or more countries share the same source of water: the Nile River, the Indus River and so on.
What are the ties between the globalization of the economy, a global environmental system, and these complex emergencies? How do those intersections potentially affect things like pandemics?
They prepare as though for the “zombie apocalypse”. But they’re really preparing for the onslaught of climate refugees and the world turmoil that will result.
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