Canadian scientists can now estimate how much human-induced climate change contributed to an extreme heat wave or flood within a week of the disaster.
“We’re comparing how often, say, a heat wave as strong as the one we observed in B.C. occurs in the present climate with how often it occurred in the pre-industrial climate without human influence, and we use climate model simulations to do that,” Gillett said. They’re also analyzing less extreme heat waves to test the system, but when they eventually make rapid analyses public, he said they will come up with criteria, such as how high the temperatures would need to be or the duration of a heat wave is to issue a report.
Why heat waves aren’t just summer weather Lualawi Mareshet Admasu, a PhD candidate in atmospheric sciences at the University of B.C., said that with climate change, heat waves are more frequent and hotter than they were even just a few decades ago. The temperate summers people knew in the 1960s and ’70s have changed drastically, and he said we need to adapt.
“A single heat wave can’t be completely attributed to climate change. But we can say, for instance, that the likelihood has increased because of climate change … and the likelihood of us encountering such events is getting higher and higher as we go into the future, so we should expect and be prepared for more, stronger heat waves.”
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